<Current State of Ukraine: Insights and Developments as of July 11>
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The situation in Russia's power sector is deteriorating. A recent analysis by Inside Russia sheds light on the country’s electrical grid, authored by a former builder of the system. In the 1980s, the USSR met its own energy needs; however, the collapse of the Soviet Union led to an overcapacity in a grid that was gradually privatized. The 1990s were marked by economic turmoil, resulting in many individuals leaving the country and newly independent states disconnecting from the Russian grid. As industries shuttered, demand plummeted, leading to a collapse in prices and a decline in maintenance. Despite having excess generation capacity, the grid managed to stay operational.
By the early 2000s, Russia experienced a financial boost and industrial demand surged as businesses reopened. The government intervened, heavily subsidizing grid upgrades, often relying on Western companies such as GE and Siemens for essential equipment. Over the next twenty years, the Russian grid underwent a significant Westernization. However, the exit of Western firms in 2022 left Russia without the necessary maintenance and expertise, leading to a precarious situation. Spare parts are scarce, and maintenance schedules are hard to adhere to.
The aging Western equipment is now akin to a “ticking bomb,” ready to fail at any moment. A minor mishap could result in catastrophic failures of generators, transformers, and other vital components.
Furthermore, there is a shortage of qualified professionals. The electrical sector needs skilled workers, who tend to seek opportunities abroad, especially since many Russians left the country following the onset of the conflict. Those who previously worked for Western firms were quickly recruited by companies overseas, drawn by better pay and the avoidance of military conscription.
Currently, only two companies, Silovie Mashini (Power Machines) and Ural Turbine Plant, manufacture large turbines, yet their output does not meet the required standards set by global competitors like Hyundai and Siemens. Financial constraints further hinder progress; high interest rates deter both domestic and foreign investment. Last winter, infrastructure issues led to 27 cities declaring states of emergency, primarily due to electrical failures, including the complete shutdown of two power plants, Podolsk and Shaganar. It's important to note that these plants also provide heating to cities through steam pipes.
Under normal maintenance conditions, equipment may break down once every twenty years. However, skipping maintenance cycles can drastically reduce this timeframe, compounding the risk of failures across interconnected systems. When one component fails, it increases the likelihood of associated parts failing as well.
Presently, Russia faces rising electricity demand fueled by extensive economic subsidies and industrial militarization. Yet, investment, expertise, spare parts, and maintenance are in short supply. While some Chinese parts can substitute, they do not always fit seamlessly, akin to using generic car components instead of those from the manufacturer. They may function temporarily but lack long-term reliability.
When a segment of the grid malfunctions, it doesn't lead to a complete shutdown, but it forces other parts to work harder, leading to more frequent breakdowns in a vicious cycle.
At this time, approximately 600,000 residents in Rostov, the operational center for the Southern Front in Ukraine, are without power. This city was already on a blackout schedule, but now faces a one-gigawatt deficit.
While attributing the failures to “high temperatures” may be technically accurate, it overlooks the underlying systemic problems.
Brief Updates
A Moscow court has issued a warrant for TV presenter Tatyana Lazareva, who fled Russia in 2022 following the war's commencement. Labeled a “foreign agent,” she is facing charges for allegedly “justifying terrorism” based on reports of Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia. Lazareva has been a vocal critic of Putin since at least 2011, opposing the criminalization of LGBT rights and the annexation of Crimea.
In a politically charged move, Russia, now presiding over the UNSC, served Chicken Kyiv at a UN luncheon, perhaps unaware of the deeper symbolism. The dish, named after Kyiv, adds an ironic twist given Russia's two-headed eagle emblem.
Solovyev’s open remarks about immigration may raise eyebrows among potential migrants considering Russia.
A quick overview of Russian disinformation reveals that all information from Russia is misleading; understanding the nature of these lies is crucial.
Several Ukrainian businesses have collectively raised over $2 million for the Okhmatdit Children’s Hospital, with notable contributions from companies such as Avrora, Sil’po, and Grammarly, among many others.
McDonald's in Ukraine announced that profits from cheeseburger sales on July 9 would be donated to the hospital, although some might view this as a limited gesture given the number of outlets and the nature of the product.
A reminder of Philip Obajai, who has been documenting Russian atrocities in Africa for years.
Russian Military and Recruitment Issues
Reports suggest that approximately 100 foreign fighters affiliated with Putin's private army have been left to fend for themselves in Ukraine.
This situation is exemplified by a Russian woman whose husband, a Wagner Group fighter, died in the conflict. She seeks financial assistance from the government but receives no support.
Another Russian woman claims she was compelled to sign a contract with a mortuary to retrieve her husband's body, facing aggression from officials when she refused. This highlights a disturbing trend of exploitation among Russians themselves.
Magomed Khandayev, a high-ranking official in the Ministry of Defense, has died under mysterious circumstances. He was previously under scrutiny for corruption linked to military construction projects.
Signing bonuses for joining the Russian military continue to rise, reaching 1.6 million rubles (approximately $18,000), while monthly salaries stand at 210,000 rubles, contingent on survival.
Interestingly, members of the Prosecutor’s Office and Investigative Committee are exempt from the draft, as these bodies are instrumental in suppressing dissent and ensuring the regime's stability.
NATO Summit Insights
President Biden is risking the United States' credibility by appearing to protect Russian military interests, opposing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, and showing reluctance in providing substantial aid. Newer NATO members like Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland perceive a direct threat from Russia and view Biden's actions as cowardly.
Russia has already targeted several NATO nations through various means, including election interference and cyberattacks. This history should have prompted a reevaluation of the restrictions placed on Ukraine's military actions.
Matthew Light, an associate professor at the University of Toronto, shares insights from his recent visits to Poland and Estonia, emphasizing that the Russian invasion has transformed perceptions in neighboring countries. The ongoing conflict has led many to question NATO's effectiveness and the reliability of their allies, impacting their personal and national security outlooks.
Light argues that the West's complacency towards the war in Ukraine jeopardizes the credibility of NATO and the EU. The perceived failure to respond adequately to the invasion leaves lasting damage to these institutions’ reputations.
Conclusion
It may already be too late to consider honor or conscience; however, the self-interest of the West should compel a more urgent response to assist Ukraine in reclaiming its territory from Russian forces.
The integrity of our alliances is at stake. A swift victory for Ukraine is essential to preserve what remains of that credibility.
That's all for today. If you'd like to support my work, consider buying me a coffee!
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About the Author
Dylan Combellick takes a holistic approach to understanding war and its implications. A retired intelligence analyst and world traveler, he focuses on themes of geopolitics and conflict.