Perspective

Global climate change is an undeniable reality, visible even from my home in Albuquerque, New Mexico, which showcases its effects prominently.

Traveling through the Southwest has allowed me to witness the dire consequences of the megadrought firsthand. However, climate change’s impact extends beyond mere drought conditions. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, resulting in unprecedented rainfall events in southeastern Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky last summer—twice. Wet soils contribute to increased precipitation and also amplify the intensity of hurricanes, such as Hurricane Ian.

Many regions have experienced sudden "flash droughts" as summer progressed and temperatures soared, but without substantial rainfall in the following months, areas rapidly dried up. This situation impacted tributaries of the Ohio River, consequently affecting the river's flow. Similar conditions were observed west of the Mississippi, where flash droughts struck tributaries of the “old man river,” leading to record low water levels in the Mississippi by late October.

Drought conditions in the Midwest, particularly concerning, threaten the primary regions for corn and wheat cultivation. Severe drought has expanded over Kansas, Nebraska, and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

The inability to transport corn and wheat to markets for export is exacerbated by diminished water levels in the Mississippi, obstructing barge traffic.

The relationship between these events is intricate.

This year, drought led to substantial cotton crop losses. Texas transitioned from no drought in 2021 to experiencing both short-term and long-term drought conditions in 2022, complicating crop planning. Cotton farmers in Pinal County, Arizona, a significant cotton-growing area, have also faced crop failures due to irrigation cessation from Colorado and depleted wells.

Prepare for increased clothing prices in the coming years.

The Ogallala Aquifer, which spans a vast region, is depleting rapidly in its southern sections. Given the extent of extraction, it might take 6,000 years to replenish. These regions are undergoing desertification, jeopardizing future staple crop production.

A Salad With Your Meal Could Become A Thing Of The Past

California's Imperial Valley, often referred to as the nation's salad bowl, is the largest consumer of water from the Colorado River. Unfortunately, little water remains for Mexico beyond the All-American Canal.

Many high-water-demand crops, such as onions, cabbage, cauliflower, and broccoli, are cultivated there, while others, like lettuces and melons, require less moisture. Most crops are grown during the cooler winter months, but alfalfa, the leading crop for livestock feed, uses the most water, as it grows year-round.

All these crops are at risk.

Due to the dwindling levels of Lake Mead, the Bureau of Reclamation has declared a Tier 2 water shortage for the lower Colorado River Basin (Nevada, Arizona, and California) starting January 1, 2023. Arizona will face a 21% reduction in water allocation, and Nevada will see an 8% cut, while California will maintain its current level due to previous water banking and senior rights. Mexico will also bear the consequences.

However, California's situation is precarious. The Bureau has mandated a plan to reduce water consumption by 2 to 4 million acre-feet in 2023. Arizona has experienced the highest water loss under the Tier 1 shortage, prompting calls from Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) for California to take responsibility.

Meanwhile, more fields in the Yuma and Imperial valleys will be left fallow, with government subsidies only partially covering losses.

In northern California, the Central Valley has over-extracted groundwater, causing land subsidence of up to 28 feet. Nuts, including almonds, walnuts, and pistachios, are significant crops in the region and require excessive water for cultivation.

To grow one almond, approximately one gallon of water is needed; one walnut requires a staggering 4.6 gallons. The consumption of almonds in the U.S. has doubled over the past 15 years. The water used for California's almond production could supply all of Los Angeles' homes and businesses for nearly three years, with 70% of the crop exported, mainly to China and Japan.

Despite not relying on Colorado River water, countless wells in the valley, particularly in Fresno, Merced, and Tuolumne Counties, have run dry.

What About Some Of Your Other Favorite Foods And Staples?

Oranges: Florida's orange crop suffered significantly due to Hurricane Ian, resulting in a projected 32% decrease in total production, leading to higher orange juice prices.

Rice: The upper Central Valley of California expects rice yields to be about 50% of usual due to water shortages. Farmers opted not to plant, anticipating insufficient water supplies. Ironically, California typically exports around half of its rice crop to China and Japan. With rice being a key ingredient in many food products, prices are likely to rise in grocery stores.

Tomatoes: A 10% decrease in California's tomato crop is expected this year. As the source of approximately 30% of the world's processed tomatoes, including sauces and pastes, prices have reached record highs, impacting pizza and pasta sauces.

Wheat: The U.S. relies on hard red winter wheat for bread, while spring wheat is used for bagels and pizza dough. Unfortunately, the winter wheat harvest fell by 25% due to drought, compounded by rainfall and late winter storms affecting the spring wheat crop.

Green Chile: As a New Mexican, I have a vested interest in the fate of our primary crop. An unusually wet monsoon season, coupled with labor shortages, has significantly reduced this year's harvest. Excessive rainfall led to root rot, and parts of the state recorded the wettest monsoon season since 1893. Green chile prefers drier conditions, so expect price increases for our beloved green chile cheeseburgers.

Beef: The early-season heatwave killed over 2,000 cattle in western Kansas, and the remaining national herd is suffering from inadequate rangeland, water, and soaring feed prices.

Consider reducing your beef consumption as a protein source. More than 2.66 million cattle have been sold this year, marking an increase of 480,000 from last year. Inflation is also pushing ranchers to sell off cattle. Water, feed, fuel, and fertilizer costs have all risen significantly. A marketing specialist from Texas A&M predicts tighter supplies and higher prices for years to come.

So Who’s Fault Is Inflation Anyway?

It's time to stop blaming Joe Biden and the Democrats for inflation.

The root cause is climate change, which plays a significant role.

Do you recall the proposal to construct a pipeline from the Mississippi River to the West to alleviate water shortages? It’s becoming increasingly apparent that food shortages may lead to dire consequences if we don’t address these issues — and quickly.

Severe famine is already a reality in Somalia, where the rainy season has failed for five consecutive years. In August alone, 44,000 children were admitted to healthcare facilities with severe acute malnutrition—a child every minute. Similar crises are unfolding in Yemen, where farmers opt to cultivate Qat (a narcotic) instead of food due to its higher market value.

Food is essential. Use it wisely.

Sources include: - “As Colorado River Dries, the U.S. Teeters on the Brink of Larger Water Crisis” by Abraham Lustgarten in ProPublica, 8/25/2022 - “Farmers Struggle as Texas Cotton Fields Decimated by Extreme Heat, Drought” by Chris Oberholtz on FoxNews Lubbock, 9/13/2022 - “Drought Forces Record Number of Cattle Sold in Texas” by Julie Tomascik in Texas Agriculture Daily, 9/14/2022 - “California’s Almonds Suck as Much Water Annually as Los Angeles Does in Three Years” by Julia Lurie in Mother Jones, 1/12/2015 - “Somalia Faces Worst Famine in Half a Century, UN Warns” in Aljazeera, 10/18/2022 - KTLA-5 News Los Angeles, 8/22/2022 - “Waterlogged Wheat, Rotting Oranges: Five Crops Devastated By a Year of Extreme Weather” by Cecilia Nowell in The Guardian, 10/1/2022

This is Part 9 of The Megadrought Series. For background information, refer to Parts 4 and 5. For all stories, search for “@artsma57” on the homepage, click on “People,” and select my profile to access my library.