Is the Megadrought Over or Just On Hiatus?

A single strong winter has shifted the narrative. Can we expect a continuation of this weather pattern?

In the drought condition maps above, "S" represents short-term drought (typically lasting under six months), while "L" stands for long-term drought (usually exceeding six months). "S.L." indicates a combination of both. The deeper the red hue, the more severe the drought situation. California appears to be in a favorable position, but another dry year could revert it back to drought conditions. My home state, New Mexico, alongside nearly all of Texas, is currently experiencing some level of drought. The Midwest's situation is concerning, as it's essential for our agriculture. New additions to the drought map include Louisiana and Mississippi, as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor and the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Is Water the New Gold Standard in the West?

For the past three years, I’ve focused my writing on the megadrought affecting the Southwest. Hydrology has become a surprisingly captivating subject for me, leading to the creation of 24 articles.

Initially, my intent was not to cover this issue from a global viewpoint, but rather to hone in on my immediate environment—the Southwest, specifically the Colorado River, which serves as a vital resource.

In New Mexico, most water flows into the Rio Grande and eventually to the Gulf of Mexico. The continental divide zigzags along the state's western edge, directing water westward into the Colorado River, making us eligible for a portion of its resources. Our contributions come from the San Juan River in northern New Mexico and the Gila River located in the southern part of the state.

This river significantly influences seven states within the Colorado Basin, which together comprise over 21% of the U.S. land area. (Northern California and Nevada rely on different water sources.) Lake Powell provides power to all these states, even extending to Nebraska, which is not part of the basin.

To clarify, the Upper Colorado River Basin encompasses Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico, while the Lower Basin includes Arizona, Nevada, and California.

Water disputes have been a part of the West since settlement began. The first significant conflict involved William Mulholland, who orchestrated the transfer of water from Owens Valley to the burgeoning Los Angeles area through an aqueduct constructed between 1908 and 1913. He secretly acquired water rights from local farmers, leaving them without resources. They fought back, but progress prevailed, leading to the transformation of the Owens Valley—a once fertile agricultural region—into a desert-like landscape.

The management of the Colorado River is dictated by a complex framework of compacts, federal regulations, international treaties, judicial rulings, contracts, and guidelines, collectively termed "the Law of the River." This agreement, established in 1922, saw Arizona delaying its ratification until 1944 due to water conflicts with California, culminating in an 11-year Supreme Court battle.

The original Colorado River Compact of 1922 allocated river resources among states based on an estimated annual flow of 16.4 million acre-feet. This allocation did not account for Mexico’s share or the needs of the 30 Native American tribes reliant on the river, nor did it consider evaporation losses. The Compact has undergone several amendments, with new federal guidelines set to be established by 2026.

So, is the Megadrought Over?

For my national and global news, I often turn to the Los Angeles Times. I appreciate its critical stance on Trump, its coverage of the Colorado River, and its implications for the Southwest. Last year, it featured a daily front-page article on the topic, but currently, there seems to be a lack of coverage.

During these times, the voices of climate change deniers become more pronounced.

California appears to have ample water resources at the moment, although this is misleading.

Lakes Mead and Powell are projected to rise by about fifty feet compared to last year. Are they safe? Absolutely not; both lakes remain under 40% of their full capacity.

The United Nations has issued warnings about climate threats should the global temperature rise by more than 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. On November 17, the Earth briefly recorded a temperature 2.06°C above this threshold.

> “Humanity has just lived through the hottest 12-month period in at least 125,000 years,” says David Reay from the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute.

> “2023 is ‘virtually certain’ to be the hottest year on record,” reports the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The Global Perspective

June was the hottest month on record until July surpassed it. According to a UN report, July not only marked the hottest month in history but also in the past 125,000 years—August followed suit. September then became the hottest September ever, with October also setting records. This year is on track to be the warmest ever recorded.

A significant factor in these records is the rising sea temperatures. On July 31, the global average sea temperature hit 69.73°F, a new high. In June and July, sea temperatures exceeding 100°F were observed off the Florida coast, an unprecedented occurrence. Elevated sea temperatures are leading to coral reef die-offs, threatening marine biodiversity and coastal protection. Coupled with rising sea levels due to polar ice melt, this sets the stage for impending disasters.

The Colorado River

The only viable solution for the Colorado River is to reduce consumption. However, agriculture currently utilizes approximately 75% of the river's water in California and Arizona. This raises the question of where our food will come from, especially regarding alfalfa, a major feed for livestock that consumes a significant amount of water. The price of beef is expected to rise unless consumption decreases.

The challenges surrounding the Colorado River's water supply are far from resolved. Despite a snowpack in the Rockies at 160% of normal last winter, the river's flow remains about 20% below historical averages. Soil remains parched, and evaporation rates in a warming climate will further diminish runoff. Additionally, the 40 million people reliant on the river are not going anywhere.

> “I think doomsday may get pushed off another year, giving us time to develop and implement some reasonable solutions,” suggests Camille Touton, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner.

El Niño

After completing six years of college, I relocated to Santa Fe, New Mexico. It wasn’t an ideal place to kickstart a career, but I was eager to leave Nebraska behind. In 1982, a powerful El Niño was active. Normally, the Southwest receives monsoonal rains post-June 15, but that year, precipitation began early, keeping temperatures cooler throughout the summer.

Now, El Niño, referred to as "The Boy," has returned. Will it follow its typical pattern, or has the climate shifted enough to alter its behavior?

Formally recognized as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño occurs when warm water develops in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly along the equator. This phenomenon typically results in increased rainfall across the southern U.S., with cooler temperatures, while the northern regions experience the opposite.

La Niña lived up to its predictions, and now El Niño is following suit in terms of temperature. Most of the Southwest has experienced above-average temperatures, and as we transition into El Niño, warmth persists. Even the southern mountain ranges of New Mexico have seen snowfall. However, New Mexico remains the only state near 100% drought conditions. Since my arrival, the state has endured significant heat and dryness, as illustrated in the NOAA map.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years. The current phase is anticipated to be stronger than usual, with increased precipitation expected south of the Mason-Dixon line.

The “La Niña” phase of ENSO arises when equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific are cooler than normal, resulting in some of the worst drought conditions in the Southwest over the past three years. In the South, it contributed to the dry conditions that initiated the drought in Louisiana.

La Niña met its expectations, while El Niño is doing the same regarding temperatures. Most of the Southwest has seen above-average warmth, and with the transition to El Niño, the trend continues.

Last winter (2022–23), the ENSO was shifting towards El Niño, which could explain the West's remarkable rain and snow events. Climate experts generally regard the winter of 2022–2023 as an anomaly, predicting that human-induced climate change will favor hot and dry conditions over cool and wet ones.

The summer of 2023 was anything but ordinary. June and July were exceptionally hot, with Phoenix recording 31 days above 110°F—a new record. Albuquerque saw 17 days at or above 100°F, where the norm is 0–5. Houston experienced the longest extreme heat streak of any major city globally, with 22 consecutive days of extreme temperatures in July and August. New Mexico has faced similar conditions during my five-year stay.

While southern Arizona and New Mexico received some monsoonal rainfall, the northern half of New Mexico experienced a “nonsoon,” with Albuquerque enduring 77 consecutive days without rain during the monsoon season.

The remnants of Hurricane Hilary provided ample rainfall across the Western Southwest during a typically dry season. Death Valley National Park recorded 2.2 inches of rain on a single day, its wettest ever, causing significant landslides and damage to roads, leading to a two-month closure of part of the park. Badwater Basin, the lowest point in the U.S., received runoff, rejuvenating this ancient dry lake—at least temporarily.

> “El Niño is poised to make a significant impact next year, leading to even greater warming as we move into 2024,” predicts Andrew Pershing, President of Science for Climate Central.

Mississippi River

While I usually don't cover regions this far east, weather patterns move from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning that as we face challenges in the West, areas in the Midwest and East are also affected.

This extreme El Niño does not bode well for the Mississippi River watershed. The Ohio Valley and the headwaters of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers are expected to experience below-normal precipitation this winter.

For the second consecutive year, Tower Rock—a stone monolith in the Mississippi River south of St. Louis—has become accessible by foot, a rarity as it is typically an island. Extreme drought across the Midwest has led to these conditions, with the flow in 2023 falling below last year's record lows.

Louisiana has been severely affected by drought, with about 50% of the state classified as being in "exceptional drought," the most severe category.

The Mississippi River serves as a vital transportation route for 60% of U.S. grain exports, primarily corn, wheat, and hay. The drought has disrupted barge movements during the harvest season, as dredging of the main channel was necessary due to reduced water levels. For two-way barge traffic, the river must be at least 9 feet deep and 300 feet wide.

In the Mississippi Delta, low river levels have allowed saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico to intrude further upstream, jeopardizing drinking water supplies in Plaquemines Parish. Residents have been advised to use bottled water only.

The “saltwater wedge” that pushes inland from the Gulf approached New Orleans’ water supply. The river's diminished flow lacked the force to keep ocean water at bay. Saltwater is denser, moving along the riverbed, and the wedge's encroachment intensified due to upstream drought conditions.

Additionally, rising sea levels compound the issue, impacting 18 million people who depend on the river for drinking water. Persistent saltwater wedges may prove too much for sills to hold back.

Warm, dry conditions persisted in the Mississippi watershed well into November, further reducing what little flow remained.

Once, a proposal surfaced regarding a water pipeline extending from the Mississippi River to parts of New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Now, with the Mississippi's low water levels becoming the norm, that plan seems unlikely to gain traction.

> “In these changing times, New Orleans is a city that is misplaced,” reflects the current predicament.

How many times can the city escape disaster? We must also consider the increasing intensity of hurricanes.

The winter forecast for the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins predicts less snow and higher temperatures, suggesting that these drought conditions could become a recurring theme. The river is continuously dredged, as water levels upstream remain low, and barge traffic ceased during September and October, coinciding with the peak harvest period.

In the next installment, we’ll return to the West, examining each region's strategies for coping with decreasing water supplies.

Sources for this Series Include:

• Los Angeles Times, 10/17/2023
• The Texas Observer, 10/11/2023
• The Arizona Republic, various reports, 9/28, 9/29, 9/30, 10/1/2023
• NOAA, NASA, NWS, and the United Nations
• “Arizona is running out of water. Big tech data centers are partly to blame” by Alistair Barr in Insider.com, 06/30/2023
• “Tower Rock is normally only accessible by boat. Here’s what it looks like now” by Eric Zerkel and Jullian Sykes, CNN, 9/23/2023
• “Saltwater pushing into Mississippi River could compromise Louisiana’s drinking water” by Tara Suter, The Hill, 9/23/2023
• “Water levels are going up in the West’s massive reservoirs. Has the water crisis been averted?” by Trevor Hughes in USA Today, 4/29/2023
• Beef2Live.com
• “Israel went from water scarcity to surplus. Can it help Utah and the Great Salt Lake?” by Ben Winslow in The Deseret News, Salt Lake City, 4/30/2023
• “Utah’s Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints donates water shares to Great Salt Lake” by David DeMille in the St. George Spectrum, 3/15/2023
• Copernicus Climate Change Service
• David Reay, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, 11/9/2023
• “A new Southern California water storage project aims to keep supplies flowing during drought” by Ian James in the Los Angeles Times, 10/29/2023
• “Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado Announce Agreement After Years of Dispute over the Lower Rio Grande River” ~ Press Release from the Office of Ken Paxton, Attorney General of Texas
• “When California’s Water Wars Turned Violent” by Kirstin Butler in PBS’ “The American Experience,” 3/24/2022.
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District

A selection of stories from early in the series:

• 6 Of The Most Unsustainable Cities, Analyzed
  • Turn off the Water When You’re Brushing Your Teeth!
  • medium.com
• Water Crisis In The West, v5.0 — The Colorado River Story
  • It’s Happening Faster Than I Can Write About It
  • medium.com
• A Road Trip To Ground Zero Of Climate Change, Part 1
  • Seeing climate change first-hand
  • medium.com